<i>Hello people!</i><br />
<i>Hope you all are in your best health by the Grace of Allah.</i><br />
<i>Today, I read an article. As it seemed worth posting here for little discussion on it, here it is:</i><br />
<br />
<u>Arab News</u><br />
<u>An article by Iman Kurdi</u><br />
<br />
<font face="Book Antiqua"><font size="5"><u><i>Events That Do Not Bode Well for 2008</i></u></font></font>
<br />
What eternal optimists we humans are! No sooner had Big Ben chimed midnight and the fireworks rocketed than my phone started buzzing with messages and calls. “Happy New Year!†“May this year be blessed with health and happiness!†Some told me they felt this would be a very good year. Others prayed for peace and prosperity. Still others commented that the number eight was auspicious. The words varied but the message was the same: We hope this year will be a good one. Despite evidence to the contrary, we cling on to the belief that a new year will herald a bright new future simply because it is new.<br />
<br />
At midnight on Dec. 31, I joined the optimists and the revelers in hoping that 2008 would be not just a good year, but a fabulous one. But in the cold light of day, it seemed much harder to hold on to that optimism. For the signs so far are for a gloomy new year not for a miraculous turnaround.<br />
<br />
To be fair, it’s not 2008 per se, but the years that preceded it. I am reminded of Louis XVth who uttered: ‘Après moi le déluge!’ And sure enough, Louis XVIth didn’t stand a chance. The events of the past year suggest that the coming year is likely to be tough if we’re lucky, disastrous if we’re not.<br />
<br />
First, there are the war zones and the human devastation they engender. Think Iraq, think Afghanistan, think Palestine, think Lebanon, to name but the most tragic to my Arab mind. They are far from new and there lie the tragedy. The situation on the ground can only get worse in 2008. Only a Hollywood scriptwriter could come up with a happy ending. Reality is that it will likely get worse and that more countries in the region will be hit by conflict.<br />
<br />
Start with Afghanistan’s neighbor Pakistan. The close of 2007 saw the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and with it the country took an explosive step from shaky to perilous ground. <br />
<br />
The appointment of a teenager as her successor sums up much that is wrong with parts of the world where family name matters more than experience or ability. Democracy, Bilawal Bhutto tells us, is the best revenge. He is right, but his name change alone points in the wrong direction. The next few months will tell whether Pakistan teeters on the brink or explodes into conflict. It’s too early to call, but even the best-case scenario is way less than the good people of Pakistan deserve.<br />
<br />
Then there is Iraq’s neighbor and long-term foe, Iran. Here we have George W. Bush pitted against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, also a cunning player but one who keeps a stash of aces up his sleeve. <br />
<br />
So far, despite all the war chants of last year, conflict has been averted, but can we entirely rule out an escalation in October 2008? Somehow knowing Bush’s blood lust, the idea that he may choose to go out on a bang does not seem as far fetched as all that.<br />
<br />
But enough doom and gloom about war, none of it may happen. Let’s talk economics. On Jan. 2, the price of crude oil hit the symbolic $100 mark. It had to happen sooner or later, and a lone trader in New York made sure it happened on his shift. He has booked his place in history and the global economy has crossed yet another milestone.<br />
<br />
High oil prices alone are enough to drag the global economy into recession, but high oil prices combined with a credit squeeze and a collapse of the housing market is a lethal combination. You don’t have to understand the intricacies of financial derivatives or the subtleties of sub-prime borrowing, to understand that the financial sector is in crisis. Banks in crisis means less money out there for people, and more crucially, for corporations to borrow. As the old saying goes, money makes the world go round. If there is less of it, there is less scope for the economy to grow. Nor do you need to be a financial wizard to understand that when house prices fall, a downward economic spiral is likely to follow.<br />
<br />
But here I find my natural optimism resurface. First, the above analysis points to the likelihood of recession in the UK and the US, not a global downturn. The powerhouses of the world economy, China and India in the main, are likely to continue to grow. <br />
<br />
Add to the equation the fact that the high price of oil is driven by demand and speculative trading rather than supply shortages and it doesn’t look quite so alarming. And as the daughter of an oil-rich country I cannot ignore that high oil prices will mean higher income receipts for oil producers. <br />
<br />
Of course high oil prices make everything more expensive and can fuel inflation as well as eat into international trade but do you remember all the brouhaha about oil reaching $40 a barrel? When that milestone was reached, the world economy did not collapse but on the contrary spurted into growth.<br />
I cannot go as far as predicting a Happy New Year. On the whole it still seems likely that this will be a tough year both economically and politically. Moreover those living in daily misery and insecurity will continue to do so and are likely to see their numbers rise. But that does not stop me wishing for a Happy New Year. <br />
<br />
The point of those New Year greetings is not that of fooling ourselves into believing a bright new day is dawning but of marking a milestone. Just like parents who mark their children’s height on a wall, we mark the ending of a year and the beginning of a new one. We are alive, we are well and we wish for health and prosperity for us and our loved ones. Happy New Year, dear readers.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<i>hmm Very true! May I have your view on it and on the economical situations of Pakistan in 2008, as well. Also say, how, according to you, will increased gold & oil prices effect world economically as well as politically in 2008?</i><br />
<br />
<i>Regards,</i><br />
<i>Nida.</i>
<i>Hope you all are in your best health by the Grace of Allah.</i><br />
<i>Today, I read an article. As it seemed worth posting here for little discussion on it, here it is:</i><br />
<br />
<u>Arab News</u><br />
<u>An article by Iman Kurdi</u><br />
<br />
<font face="Book Antiqua"><font size="5"><u><i>Events That Do Not Bode Well for 2008</i></u></font></font>
<br />
What eternal optimists we humans are! No sooner had Big Ben chimed midnight and the fireworks rocketed than my phone started buzzing with messages and calls. “Happy New Year!†“May this year be blessed with health and happiness!†Some told me they felt this would be a very good year. Others prayed for peace and prosperity. Still others commented that the number eight was auspicious. The words varied but the message was the same: We hope this year will be a good one. Despite evidence to the contrary, we cling on to the belief that a new year will herald a bright new future simply because it is new.<br />
<br />
At midnight on Dec. 31, I joined the optimists and the revelers in hoping that 2008 would be not just a good year, but a fabulous one. But in the cold light of day, it seemed much harder to hold on to that optimism. For the signs so far are for a gloomy new year not for a miraculous turnaround.<br />
<br />
To be fair, it’s not 2008 per se, but the years that preceded it. I am reminded of Louis XVth who uttered: ‘Après moi le déluge!’ And sure enough, Louis XVIth didn’t stand a chance. The events of the past year suggest that the coming year is likely to be tough if we’re lucky, disastrous if we’re not.<br />
<br />
First, there are the war zones and the human devastation they engender. Think Iraq, think Afghanistan, think Palestine, think Lebanon, to name but the most tragic to my Arab mind. They are far from new and there lie the tragedy. The situation on the ground can only get worse in 2008. Only a Hollywood scriptwriter could come up with a happy ending. Reality is that it will likely get worse and that more countries in the region will be hit by conflict.<br />
<br />
Start with Afghanistan’s neighbor Pakistan. The close of 2007 saw the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and with it the country took an explosive step from shaky to perilous ground. <br />
<br />
The appointment of a teenager as her successor sums up much that is wrong with parts of the world where family name matters more than experience or ability. Democracy, Bilawal Bhutto tells us, is the best revenge. He is right, but his name change alone points in the wrong direction. The next few months will tell whether Pakistan teeters on the brink or explodes into conflict. It’s too early to call, but even the best-case scenario is way less than the good people of Pakistan deserve.<br />
<br />
Then there is Iraq’s neighbor and long-term foe, Iran. Here we have George W. Bush pitted against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, also a cunning player but one who keeps a stash of aces up his sleeve. <br />
<br />
So far, despite all the war chants of last year, conflict has been averted, but can we entirely rule out an escalation in October 2008? Somehow knowing Bush’s blood lust, the idea that he may choose to go out on a bang does not seem as far fetched as all that.<br />
<br />
But enough doom and gloom about war, none of it may happen. Let’s talk economics. On Jan. 2, the price of crude oil hit the symbolic $100 mark. It had to happen sooner or later, and a lone trader in New York made sure it happened on his shift. He has booked his place in history and the global economy has crossed yet another milestone.<br />
<br />
High oil prices alone are enough to drag the global economy into recession, but high oil prices combined with a credit squeeze and a collapse of the housing market is a lethal combination. You don’t have to understand the intricacies of financial derivatives or the subtleties of sub-prime borrowing, to understand that the financial sector is in crisis. Banks in crisis means less money out there for people, and more crucially, for corporations to borrow. As the old saying goes, money makes the world go round. If there is less of it, there is less scope for the economy to grow. Nor do you need to be a financial wizard to understand that when house prices fall, a downward economic spiral is likely to follow.<br />
<br />
But here I find my natural optimism resurface. First, the above analysis points to the likelihood of recession in the UK and the US, not a global downturn. The powerhouses of the world economy, China and India in the main, are likely to continue to grow. <br />
<br />
Add to the equation the fact that the high price of oil is driven by demand and speculative trading rather than supply shortages and it doesn’t look quite so alarming. And as the daughter of an oil-rich country I cannot ignore that high oil prices will mean higher income receipts for oil producers. <br />
<br />
Of course high oil prices make everything more expensive and can fuel inflation as well as eat into international trade but do you remember all the brouhaha about oil reaching $40 a barrel? When that milestone was reached, the world economy did not collapse but on the contrary spurted into growth.<br />
I cannot go as far as predicting a Happy New Year. On the whole it still seems likely that this will be a tough year both economically and politically. Moreover those living in daily misery and insecurity will continue to do so and are likely to see their numbers rise. But that does not stop me wishing for a Happy New Year. <br />
<br />
The point of those New Year greetings is not that of fooling ourselves into believing a bright new day is dawning but of marking a milestone. Just like parents who mark their children’s height on a wall, we mark the ending of a year and the beginning of a new one. We are alive, we are well and we wish for health and prosperity for us and our loved ones. Happy New Year, dear readers.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<i>hmm Very true! May I have your view on it and on the economical situations of Pakistan in 2008, as well. Also say, how, according to you, will increased gold & oil prices effect world economically as well as politically in 2008?</i><br />
<br />
<i>Regards,</i><br />
<i>Nida.</i>